Impact of terrorism on Computing
Team member: Somnath Banerjee
History of Terrorism
It is difficult to define terrorism precisely, there are
many definitions, and the only general agreement about those definitions is
violence or the threat thereof. The United States Department of Defense defines
terrorism as "calculated
use of unlawful violence to inculcate fear; intended to coerce or intimidate
governments or societies in pursuit of goals that are generally political,
religious, or ideological." The events of 9/11,
perhaps for the first time, made terrorism a frightening reality in the United States
People’s Will in Russia
The peoples will was a revolutionary organization that wanted democratic
reforms in Russia
Molly Maguires in the United
States
Molly Maguires originated in Ireland United States
The Southern Racists in the United States
Racist elements in the southern United States Georgia Alabama
Animal Liberation Front
The animal liberation is an extremist animal rights group that objects to
the use of animals in laboratory testing, fur farming and other animal based
industries. These groups operate in different parts of the world and commit
acts that are supposedly consistent with its goals of animal liberation.
Although most of the groups actions have been non violent, in recent years the
group has been involved in acts that caused substantial financial damage. In
March 1999 two vehicles belonging to the Big Apple Circus were set ablaze causing
an estimated seventy thousand dollars in damage. In April 1999 12 research
laboratories in two buildings at the University
of Minnesota
In the face of
terrorist attacks, the law enforcement agencies of the affected states
institute countermeasures to prevent future attacks. They devise ways to get
more information about the perpetrators, their leaders and their sympathizers.
In certain cases a new specialized units of law enforcement has been created in
order to deal with terrorist threats. One such example is the creation of the Okhrana a Secret Police force of the
Russian empire to deal with Peoples Will.
Some
counterterrorism measures
Gathering Intelligence
This is
perhaps the most important in thwarting terrorist activities. The importance of
good intelligence, the knowledge of enemy’s intention is pivotal in warfare. As
terrorism can be considered a type of warfare good intelligence is also
important for counter terrorism. Traditional forms of intelligence gathering
consisted of infiltrating groups with informers, reading correspondence of
terrorist sympathizers, surveillance of suspects and offering rewards and other
incentives to members of terrorist organizations in exchange for information.
Analyzing Intelligence
The raw
intelligence collected has to be analyzed in order to be useful and actionable.
The analysis consists of sifting though correspondence, phone records, recorded
conversation, and surveillance videos. This has to be cross linked with known
terrorist groups and their sympathizers and a determination needs to be made
whether the material is worth pursuing or is useless.
Covert Actions
Covert
actions consist of illegal kidnappings, torture and interrogation of terror
suspects or terror sympathizers. These actions are taken outside the normal
legal system. Another form of covert action is deception which is used to
discredit the enemy. The British have employed covert action in Northern Ireland
Measures to address the causes of the conflict
This
option has not received attention as the primary focus has been to find and
eliminate terrorists. Negotiations and address of concerns of the disaffected
sections of the society can be a good idea for the long term solution to a
problem. This process is being tried in Northern Ireland
Different facets of
terrorism
While terrorism is
not a recent phenomenon the modern technological advances have created opportunities
for terrorists to cause mayhem and create panic. The terrorist attacks have
become increasingly lethal and caused more damage. According to the FBI 267
actual or suspected terrorist incidents occurred in the United States
Cyber
The importance of
computers and computer networks in western economies is overwhelming. The
Internet has become a major factor in the life of individuals as well as
government and non governmental institutions. Any impairment of internet disruption
is likely to have a significant impact on the economy. Computer networks play a
significant role in the control of power grids, in air traffic control systems
and financial systems among others. The electric power generation companies
rely on a system called supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) that
are used to collect information and regulate power generation. The SCADA
systems are used to link the power generating companies into a national power
grid and also have links to the Internet. An attack that halts some of the
Internet nodes could compromise the power network. There is a further
possibility that terrorists will be able gain access to the SCADA systems, they
may then control these systems at their will.
The Internet provides
connectivity but at the same time opens the possibility of malicious code
disabling or hijacking computer systems. The various forms of worms, viruses,
and root kits have the potential to cause nuisance, economic damage and theft
of strategic information that could be used by terrorists. Computer scientists
have demonstrated the ability to bring down the New York
An important advantage
for cyber terrorists is the anonymity and untraceability of their actions. The
cyber terrorists can create nuisance by disrupting portions of the Internet for
publicity and bragging rights. They can also deface well known public web sites
with their agenda and propaganda.
Another aspect of cyber
terrorism could be gaining access to computers that control food processing. If
the terrorists are able to get sufficient access to these computers then they
can at least theoretically alter the quantity of nutrients in these food
products. Such action could affect the health of millions of people across the
nation.
Biological
Another dimension of
technological advances is the emergence of biological terrorism. Biological
weapons are probably the most serious weapons of mass destruction. Infectious
diseases are the number one killer worldwide. A weaponized form of an
infectious disease could spread quickly, however unlike a bomb; the disease
could spread without signs that will attract attention to it. Different nations
have biological weapons program and terrorists do not need to reinvent wheel,
they need to just buy, snatch or steal the weaponized biological agents.
Although offensive biological weapons program was stopped in the United States in 1969, it continued to foster in
places like the former Soviet Union . Some
estimates put the number of personnel in the biological weapons factories in
the former Soviet Union at nearly hundred
thousand, even if a few individuals were to land in the terrorist net the
consequences would be dreadful. Some ways to categorize biological agents
·
Scale of casualties: such as less than 1000, between 1000
and 10000 and above 10000
·
Type of the agent: whether the agent is contagious or
not. Contagious and non contagious agents may be further classified as
currently treatable or non treatable.
Time is critical element
in treatment of people affected by a biological agent. The intervention period
is only a couple of days and it is important that treatment is provided within
this window, otherwise it would result in fatality.
Chemical
There are many chemical
agents that are of potentially value to terrorists. Chemical agents are
relatively easy to procure and require much less expertise than assembling a
biological or nuclear weapons. In the case of Oklahoma City
·
VX gas a colorless, odorless liquid that can spread
through air and water causing convulsions, paralysis and death.
·
Mustard gas, when inhaled this can cause long lasting
blisters
·
Sarin gas, this is a nerve agent that attacks the central
nervous system
Sarin was used in the Japanese subway
terrorist attack by an obscure cult. Chemical agents are often the method of
choice for the terrorist groups. These agents are easy to procure or steal, require
far less sophistication in assembling into a weapon (compared to nuclear or
biological agents) and cost far less money.
Nuclear
If terrorists could
possess a nuclear bomb and able to detonate it in US Soil a huge number of
deaths would result instantly. A full fledged nuclear bomb may be unavailable
to terrorists without state sponsorship. However there other scenarios in which
a nuclear attack could occur. A dirty bomb contains radiological waste from
nuclear reactors. These could be packaged inside conventional explosives.
Radiological waste is found in nuclear reactors around the world and may not be
difficult to procure from the reactors of the former Soviet
Union . A dirty bomb would not kill so many people as a nuclear
bomb (worst case estimates are about two thousand people) but it would cause
mass hysteria and panic. The financial consequences on the economy would be
disastrous. A dirty bomb explosion may lead to criminal law and order
situations in different parts of the Unites States. It may be noted that in
spite of all the heightened security, a sophisticated nuclear material was
obtained by the murderers of the ex Russian spy[1].
Research Institutions
The increased visibility of terrorism
in the past decade, culminating in the events of 9/11 has led to initiatives
that explore the role of technology as deterrence to such events. The
development of the broad field of Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI)
and the more focused terrorism informatics could be attributed to such efforts.
In order to deal with the threat of terrorism the Department of Homeland
Security has identified the three objectives
(i)
preventing future terrorist attacks
(ii) reducing the
nations vulnerability
(iii) minimizing damage
and recovering from attacks that occur
These objectives have galvanized
research in fresh areas as well as rediscovery or tailoring of disciplines for
counter terrorism. Law enforcement agencies such as Federal Bureau of
Investigation (FBI) and research agencies such Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency (DARPA) have undertaken research to create automated systems
for counter terrorism. We discuss the roles of several agencies in facilitating
computer science research to deal with the threat of modern terrorism.
FBI
FBI was created in 1908-1910
to serve as an investigation agency dealing with corruption and crime in the United States World
Trade Center
in 1993 was the first major terrorist attack in the United States Oklahoma
City Oklahoma
·
Office of IT Policy and Planning: Responsible for policy,
planning and providing strategic guidance.
·
Information Technology Systems Development: Responsible
for creating enterprise level IT capabilities through research development and
system engineering
·
IT Program Management:
Responsible for the management of IT projects.
·
IT Operations: Responsible for maintaining the global
information technology infrastructure.
FBI is closely involved
with cyber security. FBI set up the Computer
Investigations and Infrastructure Threat Assessment Center (CITAC) to respond
to physical and cyber attacks against US
NSA
The National Security
Agency was established in 1952 and is in charge of creating, encrypting and providing
intelligence to the government and the military. As part of its role as the
center of excellence in cryptology and electronic communication systems, NSA
has been successful in groundbreaking research in many different areas of
computing such as quantum computing, networking technologies and computer
systems security. NSA has recognized the threat of terrorism and is engaged in
research to deal with the challenges to the information infrastructure. One of
the principal research areas at NSA is dedicated to secure operating systems.
Security is a primary concern for the users and providers of Internet based
services. NSA believes there are certain limits to security that application
programs can provide, and is therefore conducting research on securing the
operating system. NSA has enhanced the Linux operating system into a secure
Linux. This version of Linux has a strong mandatory access control mechanism
that is integrated into the subsystems of the Kernel. Secure Linux has the
ability to secure processes within the operating system from each other. This
version of Linux has mandatory access control policies that give user level
programs and system level programs just the level of access to do their jobs
but no more. NSA is also part of the biometrics consortium and is conducting
advanced research in biometrics.
DARPA
The Defense Advance
Research Project Agency (DARPA) operates under the Department of Defense.
Although the goal of ARPA is the development of new technology for the military,
some of the technologies developed by ARPA such as ARPANET, the precursor to
the Internet have become ubiquitous. The Defense tag the D of DARPA have been
added and dropped several times and it has been officially ARPA or DARPA. DARPA was
established during the cold war when a need was felt for fundamental
innovations in technology in the face of competition from the former Soviet Union . In 1962 the Information Processing
Technology Office (IPTO) was created, this office has had a major role in
computer science research. DARPA has instituted many projects that crate
advanced systems for automated intelligence gathering. These systems will help
in counter terrorism efforts. One of the IPTO programs is Global Autonomous
Language Exploitation (GALE). This program envisions a system to analyze
information in a variety of languages and formats. The system will produce distilled information
that will be useful to the intelligence analyst and provide it in response to
English language queries. The GALE system is designed to provide the following
·
Transcription of speech to English language
·
Translation of non English text to English
·
Distillation of English text to create useful information
The system should also
be able to process any naturally occurring speech including broadcast news,
newsgroups, weblogs, telephone conversations etc.
Information Technology
and Counter Terrorism Research Areas
In advanced nations including the United States
Information technology can also be
used to prevent attacks. Intelligence or in other words pertinent information
is the key to a preemptive response to terrorism. While vast amounts of
information (100s of billions of pieces) is gathered by the security agencies
crunching all this to point to perhaps an hundred or so that a human can look
at is a challenging task. Intelligence analysis is a huge task and only
research in computing can lead to useful solutions. Some of the promising
directions for computing with regard to counter terrorism are outlined in the
following sections.
Cyber
security and Network Infrastructure Protection
There are different
perceptions with regard to the nature of cyber threat. [2]Green
contends that terrorists have not killed anyone using a computer and are
unlikely to do so in the future. The non occurrence of cyber killings does not
mean that terrorists do not exploit the Internet to their advantage. Many
organized crime syndicates exploit the Internet for identity theft, credit card
fraud and money laundering. Terrorism can be considered as a type of organized
crime and has been known to use the Internet as a means of fund raising to fuel
its activities. Terrorists can also use identity theft to assume identities of
legitimate citizens; this may enable them to access sensitive information or
secure locations. The Internet is also being used by terrorists for recruitment
and propaganda. Some analysts have claimed that a “digital Pearl Harbor” attack
would cause significant damage to the United States United States
The 9/11 attacks resulted
in unprecedented singular loss of communication infrastructure. Although far
less spectacular, some criminals have been able to commit significant local
damage[4] to
network infrastructure. One of the stated goals of Al Qaeda is hitting the US Pakistan
The potential of a
catastrophic network attack have led to different research initiatives in the
study of complex networks. Real world networks that comprise the Internet
demonstrate a high level of clustering where nodes locate preferentially close
to nodes that already have a level of connectivity. These nodes are generally
referred to as hubs. Some researchers have modeled real world networks as scale
free networks[6]. The
topology of networks in terms of well connected hubs poses problems in terms of
network connectivity when a few major hubs are rendered dysfunctional by
terrorist action. This would isolate many nodes in the network. Some studies
have concluded that a scale free network model remains connected even when
eighty percent of nodes are randomly removed from the network but when the top
five percent of the nodes are removed the average path length increases
exponentially.
Sensors
and Screening Technologies
The challenges in
detecting materials that are potential terror weapons have led to the
development of sensors and screening technologies. However even before looking
for technology solutions, we need it have a clear idea about what it is that we
are looking for. For a dirty bomb that may contain a nuclear material like
Cesium we might be looking at a two feet tall cylinder weighing several tons.
For biological weapons it might be even more challenging task, like the
detection of anthrax in a small envelope within a huge mail sorting facility. Detecting
weapons in the vast amount of goods that cross into the United States
Biological sensors are
also being put in sensitive public areas. These monitor the air quality and
inform a command center if it sniffs anything suspicious.
Data
Mining and Knowledge Discovery
Knowledge discovery
techniques have been used to extract information from large data sets. These
techniques have been used in different application domains such as banking and
finance and consumer behavior analysis. Some of the traditional discovery
techniques are association rules mining, classification and prediction and
cluster analysis. Text mining can be used to derive key relationships in
sorting through voluminous intelligence reports, third party research, tips
from informers and public. An important aspect of counter terrorism is ‘linking
the dots’. Finding association between apparently unrelated things is an
important aspect of knowledge discovery. Association rule mining is being used
to focus on interesting patterns that would then be further investigated[7]. Association
mining may also discover new relationships among crime data. Association mining
for crime association can further classified into incident or entity
association mining. Incident association mining attempts to link criminal
incidents based on the unique or distinctive features of the crime, this may be
considered as a crime ‘fingerprint’. Entity association mining relates the
perpetrators of a crime with the accomplices, supporting organizations, weapons
and sympathizers. Entity mining relates entities to variety of crimes that may
appear to be unrelated. This type of mining has been used by the FBI in Oklahoma City
An important usage of data
mining is in detecting money laundering activities. Money laundering is not a
recent phenomenon. Its roots can be traced back to the gangsterism prevailing
in the 1920s. During that time innovative methods were used to disguise money
obtained from racketeering. The present volume of money laundering is estimated
between five hundred and eighty four billion dollars and one and half trillion
dollars. A provision in the United States Patriot Act, Title III froze the US United States
Bio
Terrorism Informatics
The emergence of
biological terrorism, most famously in the shape of the post 9/11 Anthrax
attacks has led to many research initiatives to study potential measures to
prevent and contain the effects of this threat. The need for preemption
necessitates comprehensive real time monitoring and threat detection. In order
to quickly detect an environmental or disease pattern, medical officials across
the country need to have a standard way of reporting any abnormal activity. Detection
of potential signs of bioterrorism is quite challenging as it is easy to
confuse among varying, preexisting and overlapping conditions. This is
especially true during the early stages of an infectious disease when detection
would be particularly helpful. Responding to bio terrorism or potential
incidents of bioterrorism also means precise information dissemination on a
massive scale. There is also an important preparatory and training aspect. For
a bio terrorism preparedness system maximizing effectiveness while reducing
costs is an important goal.
The need for
bioterrorism preparedness has led to the use of modeling techniques to study
the impact of transmission of infectious diseases after a bioterrorism attack. A
conventional model is the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model. This
model computes the theoretical number of people infected with a contiguous
disease over time in an epidemic. A newer model to study the progress of an
epidemic resulting from weaponized biological diseases is BioWar[9]. University of South Florida
The Center for
Biological defense is also developing next generation bio sensors that rely on
multi sample analysis to correctly detect the presence of target agents[12].
Machine
Translation
Machine Translation is
the application of computers to translate text from one language to another. This
is complicated by the language characteristics such as idiom, tone, inflection
and dialects. The huge volumes of text and speech in a variety of languages
pose interesting challenges in search and information extraction. A variety of
tools and technologies are being developed to address this problem.
Another interesting and
challenging problem is that of name recognition. Many variations of an
individuals name are created when they are changed from their original script
to Roman characters. It could be very difficult to transliterate names that have
regional variations in spelling, titles and nomenclature. Some vendors are
beginning to offer products to facilitate the storage, retrieval and search of
names from across the globe[13].
The shortage of Arabic
experts have prompted companies such as Basic Systems[14]
to create tools that allow users to search Arabic source with English query
texts. This tool uses a technique called multilingual information retrieval. It
is based on Unicode that assigns a number to every character. Other companies
such as Language Weaver provide automated language translation using
statistical techniques[15] .
The paucity of linguists and analysts in languages such as Arabic has also
prompted organizations such as DARPA to look for automating language analysis
tasks. DARPA has embarked on a massive project called Global Autonomous
Language Exploitation (GALE) to provide automated translation of both text and
speech[16]. DARPA is also developing the Translingual
Information Detection, Extraction and Summarization (TIDES) program[17].
This will allow English speakers to effectively search across information from
multiple languages.
Social
Network Analysis
Terrorism relies on
networks of cells for their activities. These networks are amorphous in nature
and resilient to attack and disruption. Social Network analysis is a new
computational technique to study these complex networks. This technique can be
used to analyze the dynamics of terrorist organizations and aid the
investigative agencies in dismantling the terror infrastructure. A terrorist
network can be treated as a social network. Individuals in such a network may
join one another through relations based on kinship, friendship or mentor. This
type of network is also very dynamic in nature. Members may join, leave or be
eliminated at any point of time. The roles of members may change with
acquisition or loss of power, subgroups may form and dissolve, the loyalties
may change. The network may evolve from a hierarchical structure to a flat one
or vice versa.
A social network can be
viewed as a graph in which nodes represent members and links represent the
relationships between members. The different approaches to Social Network
Analysis can be classified into descriptive, statistical and simulation
methods. With descriptive methods the structural elements of the network are
measured and compared using various metrics over time to describe the interplay
between nodes, links and groups within the network. Statistical methods attempt
to describe the dynamics in the network as well as investigate the causes
behind those dynamics. The statistical methods are based on the Markov model
where the future state is dependent on the current state. The process of
transition from one state to another is governed by conditional probabilities
that affect this transition. In simulation methods members of a social network
are viewed as agents who exhibit behavior based on certain criteria. The
collected behavior of all members shapes the evolution of the network.
Social networks can be
analyzed with the help of certain measures such as degree, betweeness and
closeness. Degree of a node measures how active a node is, it is the number of
links a node has. Individuals with high degree are the hubs which may indicate
their stature as leader. Betweeness
measures the extent to which a node lies between other nodes and may indicate
that the member at that particular node is a facilitator or intermediary in the
terrorist communication chain. Closeness of a node is defined as the sum of the
geodesics (shortest path between two nodes) between a particular node and all
other nodes in the network[18].
Social Network Analysis
helps the FBI in tracking criminals and terrorists. The software used by FBI
ties an individual to his or her social network, money trails and phone
conversations. FBI used this technology to locate Saddam Hussein[19].
This technology also helped FBI to narrow the search for the sniper who
terrorized the DC area.
Security policies and
privacy
Following 9/11 many
security measures including the Patriot Act were implemented by the United States London
With regard to concerns
for privacy rights it is helpful to look at the case of Danny Lee Kyllo versus
the United States
Conclusions
Rules
of the game have not changed through history
The fundamental methods
of counter terrorism remain the same as they were hundred or two hundred years
back. The same techniques of gathering intelligence, infiltration, analyzing
intelligence and creation of specialized agencies are being used. However the
scale of terrorism has changed, whereas before there were few groups now there
are hundreds. Similarly in modern terrorism the perpetrators and their
sympathizers are many compared to a few handful in the past centuries, whereas
in the past it was confined to a narrow geographical location (such as a few
counties in Pennsylvania ) now it has spread all over the world. The money
involved has also grown manifold. In order to deal with this growth the power
of computing has to be unleashed for counter terrorism. It is inconceivable now
that a single agent (like James McParlan of the Pinkerton detective agency who
infiltrated the Molly Maguires)
can infiltrate an organization like the Al Qaeda and secure the conviction of
all the top leaders of that organization.
Research
in Computing will not go to waste
The research in
computing that has been motivated by terrorism will not go to waste if and when
terrorism ends. Terrorism is a criminal activity, only in a grander scale.
Computing tools developed for terrorism can be used for other purposes.
Techniques for detecting money laundering can be used to detect money
laundering associated with the narcotics trade. Social network analysis can be
used to locate criminals and reveal gang activity; in addition it might find
uses in psychiatry. Machine learning can be used for auto translation between
languages. Cyber security research would be useful to every corporation from
protecting their assets from viruses, worms, and cyber criminals. Terrorism has
perhaps fuelled research and development into computing in the form of
additional budgets, but the product of this research will benefit all users of the
technology irrespective of terrorism.
Computing
is no substitute for collection of good intelligence
Computers can help in
sifting through billions of pieces of information. They can help in connecting
the dots, in transcription and translation in visualization and information
dissemination. However in order for the computers to do their job they need to
be fed good intelligence. Computers can provide the right guidance, provided
that there are some pieces of useful intelligence in the billion pieces of
information that has been entered about a suspect. If this is not the case then
computers may paint an incorrect picture and even misdirect the investigation.
The usage of advanced computing and sophisticated systems should not make the
agencies complacent, the agencies should not lose sight of the value of
professional fieldwork conducted by the agents.
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[17] http://www.darpa.mil/IPTO/programs/tides/index.htm
[18] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_network
[19] http://www.fbi.gov/page2/aug05/links081805.htm
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